Britain delivers damning verdict on Blair's 10 years
Monday, 09 April 2007
A remarkable picture of the way Tony Blair has lost the faith of British
voters over his 10 years in power is revealed today by a comprehensive study of
public attitudes towards the Prime Minister.
As Blair prepares to leave office, the poll of more than 2,000 adults shows that
people believe the country is a more dangerous, less happy, less pleasant place
to live. There was a negative response to nearly all of more than 40 questions
the public was asked about trust in politics, how they felt about their own
lives and whether public services had got better.
Despite some independent evidence that services have improved and the economy
has performed well compared with other industrialised nations, the poll shows
how damning the public's verdict is on Blair and his government.
The poll, carried out for The Observer for a special supplement on his decade in
power, will increase concerns among Labour's high command that the party is
facing electoral defeat in the crucial national elections in Scotland and Wales
and the local elections in England next month. It could also mean that Gordon
Brown, if he wins the subsequent leadership election, will be handed an almost
impossible political legacy to deal with.
The poll reveals that almost half of voters consider the outgoing Prime Minister
as out of touch, untrustworthy and overly concerned with spin, while 57 per cent
think he has stayed in office too long. And despite the billions of pounds
poured into health care, more than half rate the government's performance on the
NHS as poor or very poor in a sign that even Labour's traditional strengths are
becoming dangerously eroded.
The harsh verdict appears to quash hopes that Blair could bow out with the
'crowds wanting more' - as a now infamous leaked Downing Street memo suggested
only last autumn - and will renew some Labour MPs' fears that anger with him is
contaminating the image of the whole party. It will reopen questions about
whether he should be fronting the current election campaign.
Friction is already setting in between supporters of Blair and Brown over who
should carry the blame for predicted heavy losses in the Scottish Parliament,
Welsh assembly and English town halls on 3 May, with Brownite MPs warning that
opposition parties are exploiting anti-Blair feeling on the stump.
'The big problem we have got on the doorstep in Scotland is the SNP and the Lib
Dems, and the Tories going round hammering home the message "This is your last
chance to give Tony Blair a kicking",' said one senior Brown ally.
The BPIX poll, giving the Tories an 11 per cent lead over Labour, was
commissioned to test voters' overview of the Blair years and their impact on
national life. It suggests voters remain unimpressed by years of public service
reform and convinced, despite his controversial focus on antisocial behaviour,
that Blair has been too soft on crime. Forty per cent considered him 'tired' and
running out of ideas.
While just over a quarter rated the government's general performance under Blair
as good or very good, 61 per cent disagreed that Britain was 'a more pleasant
place to live' now than in 1997, 69 per cent thought it was more dangerous and
58 per cent disagreed that it was happier. On education, 45 per cent rated the
government's performance as poor or very poor while 60 per cent thought the same
on transport.
The poll holds little cheer for those hoping an alternative successor would do
better than Brown in reviving New Labour. Asked who would best carry on Blair's
work, the Chancellor came top with 35 per cent, with the young Environment
Secretary David Miliband on 4 per cent and Charles Clarke with 1 per cent. Both
potential rivals were less popular than the Tory leader David Cameron on 13 per
cent, with even Labour voters preferring Cameron to Clarke.
Blair will campaign prominently this week in Wales and Scotland, signalling the
party believes he is still an electoral trump card. 'At this election the key
thing is to get your core vote out and the view is that the person who is able
to get the core vote out in Scotland is him,' said one senior aide.
Loyalists also hit back. 'I have never heard anybody talk about the years before
1997 as the good old days,' said Alan Milburn, the former Labour party chairman.
'The story is no longer about leaking classrooms, falling standards, lengthening
hospital waiting lists or a Britain unique in lacking a minimum wage. Prosperity
is being spread, poverty being eroded and services have been improved. I have no
doubt history will smile kindly on Tony Blair's 10 years.'
The poll suggests voters do think some communities benefited under Labour, with
51 per cent believing Britain is now a better place for ethnic minorities and 61
per cent that it is better for gays and lesbians. However, political scientists
David Sanders and Paul Whiteley, analysing the poll for today's Observer, argue
that for some this could actually be a negative, reflecting 'a belief that New
Labour has "looked after them but not after people like me".' Women, who were
critical to sealing Labour's last three victories, were more likely than men to
think Blair untrustworthy and say they liked him less than they used to. The
Iraq war is seen as Blair's nadir, with 58 per cent judging it his biggest
failure: almost two-thirds thought he had just followed America. His biggest
success was the Northern Ireland peace process, followed by Bank of England
independence.
· The BPIX poll of 2,034 adults was taken from 16-19 March
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